Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.007725 0.008703 0.009759 0.010984 0.012369 0.013886 0.015675
2026-01-25 0.006131 0.007464 0.009023 0.010981 0.013380 0.016227 0.019868
2026-02-01 0.005142 0.006605 0.008410 0.010807 0.013911 0.017807 0.023087
2026-02-08 0.004537 0.006089 0.008090 0.010868 0.014637 0.019590 0.026627
2026-02-15 0.004021 0.005602 0.007721 0.010779 0.015095 0.021001 0.029743
2026-02-22 0.003709 0.005346 0.007615 0.011005 0.015968 0.023007 0.033825
2026-03-01 0.003280 0.004872 0.007148 0.010656 0.015960 0.023734 0.036088
2026-03-08 0.002958 0.004518 0.006812 0.010453 0.016125 0.024693 0.038745
2026-03-15 0.002663 0.004174 0.006456 0.010175 0.016135 0.025395 0.041034
2026-03-22 0.002553 0.004103 0.006504 0.010521 0.017135 0.027699 0.046058
2026-03-29 0.002425 0.003990 0.006473 0.010732 0.017926 0.029719 0.050778
2026-04-05 0.002313 0.003891 0.006454 0.010955 0.018748 0.031844 0.055844
2026-04-12 0.002146 0.003691 0.006257 0.010868 0.019047 0.033133 0.059618
2026-04-19 0.002009 0.003531 0.006113 0.010860 0.019481 0.034689 0.064014
2026-04-26 0.001859 0.003333 0.005888 0.010687 0.019601 0.035687 0.067459
2026-05-03 0.001759 0.003219 0.005799 0.010748 0.020146 0.037490 0.072565
2026-05-10 0.001647 0.003070 0.005637 0.010659 0.020399 0.038765 0.076755
2026-05-17 0.001588 0.003016 0.005642 0.010884 0.021264 0.041262 0.083571
2026-05-24 0.001458 0.002819 0.005364 0.010538 0.020986 0.041513 0.085858
2026-05-31 0.001358 0.002670 0.005167 0.010337 0.020975 0.042284 0.089271
2026-06-07 0.001258 0.002514 0.004944 0.010063 0.020791 0.042686 0.091932
2026-06-14 0.001235 0.002510 0.005020 0.010405 0.021906 0.045845 0.100817
2026-06-21 0.001198 0.002475 0.005032 0.010613 0.022755 0.048509 0.108846